Scientific Questions
01
Is there sufficient scientific evidence for 1.5°C or 2°C?
02
Is atmospheric circulation, environment, extreme weather, and climate response to the 1 or 2°C of warming reversible? Is it predictable?
Where we focus
Why the gap?
and what is the real?
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Lack of physical understanding of tipping elements
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Consider various tipping elements
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Interaction through C/N cycle and dynamical/thermodynamical processes
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Process bias correction (beyond mean bias)
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Reversibility and its range analysis
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Locality in irreversibility
To rediscover the present climate system
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To identify and diagnose irreversible processes in the past and future
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To investigate interactions between tipping elements
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To analyse the possibility of a catastrophic chain reaction
Paradigm shift in the climate system
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Major tipping elements;
- Gas hydrate in permafrost
- Dynamical/thermodynamical processes of the ice sheet and sea ice -
Understanding of irreversible climate components
and their interaction -
A large uncertainty in circulations and feedbacks
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Integrated research including geochemical processes
Nonlinear responses in East Asian extreme weather and climate
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The response of East Asian extreme weather to global warming is NOT linear.
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A large possibility of amplified nonlinearity due to the simultaneous effects coming from the Arctic and tropical forcing, and mid-latitude internal dynamics
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Evaluation of the response to linear/nonlinear climate change and its influence
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Evaluation of predictability and of the possibility of the nonlinearity amplification based on feedback processes in tipping elements
midlatitudes
Arctic
Tropics
How we work
To achieve our goals
